In a head-to-head matchup with Biden, Cheney leads 58% to 42%, while Biden and Trump remain in virtual dead heat without Cheney in the race
SAN FRANCISCSO, CA – Premise, the global on-demand insights company based in San Francisco, today disclosed the result of its latest Premise Poll, which surveyed more than 1,500 Premise app contributors across the country. The poll shows that, in a three-way race with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) receives 19% of the hypothetical vote. Under the same survey question, Biden registered 36% support and Trump registered 45% support.
Notably, if Cheney were to receive 19% of the vote in a presidential election, it would be the most support a third-party presidential candidate has received since former President Theodore Roosevelt received 27.4% of the vote in 1912 running as a member of the Progressive Party.
This iteration of the Premise Poll also revealed:
- In a head-to-head matchup, Trump and Biden are in a virtual dead-heat, with Trump receiving 51% support and Biden receiving 49% support, mirroring Premise’s survey from July.
- In a head-to-head contest between Biden and Cheney, Cheney wins by the landslide margin of 58% to 42%.
- Among Democratic voters, Biden leads Cheney 61% to 39%. However, Cheney carries a 2/3 majority of independent voters (67% to 33%) and overwhelms him among Republican voters by a four-to-one margin (80% to 20%).
- Under Premise’s generic party preference question, respondents have moved significantly toward the Democratic party. 52% of Premise Poll respondents believe that Congress should remain under Democratic control and 42% believe the Republicans should become the majority party in Congress.
- In the previous Premise Poll, 53% of respondents favored the Republican Party, whereas 47% of respondents favored the Democratic Party.
- There is little change among Premise Poll respondents when it comes to candidate preferences in a potential 2024 Republican presidential primary. 64% favor Trump’s renomination, which is more than four times higher than Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ support (15%).
- Former Vice President Mike Pence is lagging further behind in the Premise Poll, coming in at 7%.
- On the Democratic side, President Biden’s support for potential re-election remains tight. 53% of respondents believe that he should not run for re-election.
- Among Democratic respondents, 51% believe that he should let another member of his party run for president. Among independent respondents, 62% believe that Biden should step aside after his current term.
- If Biden does not run for re-election, Vice President Kamala Harris is the most popular potential Democratic candidate in 2024 (34%), with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton coming in second (18%).
- California Governor Gavin Newsom and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are virtually tied in third (9% and 8%, respectively).
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Disclosure of Polling Methodology
These results are based on responses from 1,572 Americans collected between September 2nd and September 5th via the Premise smartphone application. Premise randomly sampled its opt-in panel members, stratified on Age, Gender, Region and Education, based on the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS). The results are weighted by Age, Gender, Region, and Education benchmarked against the 2019 ACS estimates. Respondents were compensated for their participation.
Premise is an on-demand insights company. Its technology mobilizes communities of global smartphone users to source actionable data in real-time, cost-effectively, and with needed visibility. In more than 135 countries and 37 languages, Premise finds Data for Every Decision™. To learn more, please visit www.premise.com.
Taylor C. Pearson