Widespread Concern Among Afghans as Locust Outbreak Threatens Wheat Supply
Tracking Global Events | 15 May 2023
Nearly 20 million people are thought to be at the highest risk of famine in 25 years due to a locust outbreak in northern Afghanistan. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimates that a full outbreak could result in crop losses of up to 1.2 million tons of wheat, further compounding the deep economic crisis that has permeated since the Taliban took over in August 2021. Premise deployed a survey to better understand Afghan sentiment on a locust outbreak and the effect it has on their livelihoods and food supply.
Insights
- When asked about current access to food, 70% of respondents signaled satisfaction, but half of respondents reported price increases in the past month.
- Just over half of Afghans had heard about a locust problem in their country (54%), and 39% of respondents had heard about a shortage in wheat supply in coming months.
- After informing all Contributors of the locust problem, Premise asked Contributors how concerned they were about a potential wheat shortage: 48% were strongly concerned and a further 39% were somewhat concerned.
- Furthermore, 31% of Afghans are very concerned about their household’s access to food in the next 6 months, with 50% somewhat concerned and only 5% not concerned at all.
- When asked, “How likely are you to move away from where you currently live in the near future?” 22% answered “very likely,” 46% “somewhat likely,” and only 32% not likely.
Methodology
Premise received 1000 responses with a 50/50 gender split across 29 provinces between May 13th and 15th. The survey utilized a convenience sample, a type of nonprobability sampling that is hyper efficient in dynamic events, involving the sample being drawn from the population that is ready to assist.
Premise in Action
Premise offers a unique ability to quickly source information from real people on the ground in hard-to-reach places. Over five million people in 140 countries are using the Premise app on their smartphones, enabling our customers to monitor a situation over time and employ a data-driven approach to timely decision-making.