Monitoring the Global Pulse

Monitoring the Global Pulse


By Samantha Hubner | Senior Consultant
This map comes from Premise’s recently released white paper “Kazakhstan on the Brink”. The map showcases the relative magnitude of Premise Contributors who are sharing about the ongoing unrest during the month of January 2022. Please reach out to john.wishart@premise.com to access the full report.

For the last two weeks, the public eye has been fixated on Kazakhstan after public demonstrations against the government turned violent. What began as economic frustration over fuel has now exacerbated to a much larger public commentary on dissatisfaction with the Kazakh government, leading to an increasing number of fatalities in civilians, protesters, and security forces alike. Maximillian Hess of the Foreign Policy Research Institute was quoted as saying “I’ve never seen anything like this in Kazakhstan, it’s absolutely unprecedented.”

Premise Data Global Index Economic Indicators; Kazakhstan; January 2020 – January 2022

Earlier this week, Premise’s Director of International Development Chris Watson shared a post with the graph above about the relevance and value of  Premise’s subscription-based Global Index toward forecasting events like those currently unfolding in Kazakhstan. Across designated metrics in five key quality-of-life factors, the Global Index maintains an ongoing longitudinal study of sentiment throughout our global networks that keep clients apprised and prepared for the future. 

Particularly when it comes to instances of peaceful public demonstrations, or civil resistance, longitudinal data collection proves its insights to be absolutely invaluable to informing smarter decision-making and resource allocation. 

In 2012, Erica Chenowith and Maria J. Stephan published a groundbreaking book examining nonviolent civil resistance campaigns. Previously, the idea of citizen-led resistance was not necessarily seen with any consistent or reliable effectiveness toward regime change. Yet, the authors found that from 1900 to 2006, campaigns of nonviolent resistance were more than twice as effective as their violent counterparts. 

As a crowdsourcing data and analytics platform, the value of our software is wholly powered by the voice of the people. So when those voices speak peacefully and in protest, Premise is uniquely equipped not only to listen, but also accurately capture the progression of the root causes of a population’s discontent in real-time. 

Solidarity rally in Vilnius, Lithuania via Premise Contributor

As we observe sentiment changing, Premise is able to act on current events by initiating new surveys to elaborate on trends captured by the Global Index. In this blog post about protests in Belarus, Premise pivoted toward inquiring about attitudes of neighboring country populations to add more salient nuance to the evolving situation in a broader geopolitical context. Following the internet shutdown in Ethiopia in response to protests over t​​he murder of Haacaaluu Hondessa, Premise was able to collect critical metrics on the impact of that shutdown toward the local population. In both world events, Premise’s data enabled immediate analysis to go beyond what news outlets were reporting.

Shortly after the internet was restored across the country, Premise released a survey to our network of contributors in Ethiopia to learn more about their experience during the internet shutdown. Over 1,000 responses were collected and examined across each regional state and self-governing administration.

Another relevant example of the value of longitudinal sentiment collection is that of Premise’s ongoing COVID-19 Global Impact study. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, Premise has observed a number of key trends affecting spending habits, social behaviors, and health. This data has facilitated a number of follow on analyses, such as those exploring the impact on elections in Poland and Serbia.

Premise’s COVID-19 Global Impact Dashboard

Today, such postponement of elections observed along trends in economic satisfaction, healthcare access, and trust in media by both the Global Index and the COVID-19 Global Impact study provide prescient knowledge and understanding of world events as they unfold to businesses and organizations operating around the world. With Premise’s global network of over 2M+ contributors, it’s easier than ever to gain global real-time insight and monitor sentiment around current events. Interested in working with us? Email info@premise.com.