Trump remains in statistical dead heat with Biden, who remains underwater in job approval, 51% approve, 42% disapprove
San Francisco, CA – September 26, 2022 — The Premise Poll, in its latest regular political tracking poll, found that by a margin of 10 points, 42% – 32%, a plurality of Americans oppose sending undocumented individuals from the U.S.-Mexico border to cities in the North.
Nearly half of respondents (48%) are in favor of increased security along the U.S. and Mexico border. However, 39% are in favor of establishing a way for immigrants here illegally to stay legally, and 39% are in favor of allowing those who came to the U.S. illegally as children (also known as “dreamers”) to remain here. Only 27% favor increasing deportation of immigrants here illegally.
The same poll, taken September 17-19, of a total nationwide sample of 1,703 adults, also had former President Donald Trump in a statistical dead heat with President Joe Biden in a possible 2024 presidential election – with Trump at 49% and Biden at 51%. The Premise Poll’s tracking poll from two weeks ago also had Biden and Trump in a statistical tie.
President Biden’s job approval ratings remain underwater (virtually unchanged from two weeks ago). 51% somewhat or strongly disapprove of the job President Biden is doing vs. 41% who somewhat or strongly approve. More than three times as many in the sample “strongly disapprove” of Biden’s job performance as “strongly approve” – 31% vs. 10% respectively.
Trump still leads the field of potential GOP candidates by huge margins among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents – at 63% for Trump to 14% for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. On the Democratic side, if Biden does not run again, Vice President Kamala Harris is way out front among Democrats and independent leaners – 36% followed by 18% for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and 10% and 7% for California Governor Gavin Newsom and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, respectively.
A narrow margin of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents in the sample do not think President Biden should run again (52% – 48%), which is virtually identical to the 53% – 47% opposing another run as seen in Premise’s tracking poll two weeks ago.
Other Findings:
- More respondents prefer the Democratic party (46%) to have control of Congress following the 2022 midterms than the Republican party (34%) – a margin much larger than other polls. This could suggest an outlier (although the total sample taken mirrors the results of the 2020 presidential election, suggesting the sample is relatively representative).
- On opposing vs. favoring what two governors have done in sending undocumented persons north, respondents located in the South (39%) were more likely to approve than respondents located in the Northeast (27%).
- More respondents prefer the Democratic party (45%) to lead on immigration policy than the Republican party (37%).
For cross tabulation tables by party, gender, ethnicity, region, see here:
Immigration, Age, Gender, and Region
Immigration, Party, Ethnicity, and Education
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Methodology
These results are based on responses from 1,703 Americans collected between September 16th and September 19th via the Premise smartphone application. Premise randomly sampled its opt-in panel members, stratified on Age, Gender, Region and Education, based on the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS). The results are weighted by Age, Gender, Region and Education benchmarked against the 2019 ACS estimates. Respondents were compensated for their completion of the survey through the Premise app.
About Premise
Premise, the innovative platform that democratizes the way data is sourced, analyzed, and applied, recently surveyed, is an on-demand insights company. Its technology mobilizes communities of global smartphone users to source actionable data in real-time, cost-effectively, and with needed visibility. In more than 140 countries and 37 languages, Premise finds Data for Every Decision™. To learn more, please visit www.premise.com.
Contact: Taylor C. Pearson
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202-235-3482